Bitcoin Price Prediction: Why the $100K Narrative Fails
Bitcoin's $100K narrative versus reality: inflows slow, corporate buying faded, gains from shorts covering. What the actual data shows about positioning.
Bitcoin's $100K narrative versus reality: inflows slow, corporate buying faded, gains from shorts covering. What the actual data shows about positioning.
Blockchain.com applies for two CFTC licenses to offer prediction markets and crypto derivatives to U.S. customers, accelerating its $500 million IPO push.
Kalshi is investigating three bets totaling $173 that correctly predicted Katie Zacharia as White House press secretary hours before the announcement.
CFTC proposes rules for margin-based crypto trading while spot markets, the vast majority of retail activity, remain under state regulation.
Robinhood CEO claims America's first perpetual futures despite Coinbase launching in July 2025. CFTC's May 2026 approval enabled both platforms.
Coinbase Clearing received CFTC approval on September 28 for USDC-native derivatives settlement, completing the firm's vertically integrated stack.
The CLARITY Act failed 49-50, but regulators moved ahead with crypto rules. Without Congressional backing, they can be reversed after the next election.
The Senate killed the Clarity Act on Sept 15. Within 48 hours, SEC and CFTC issued three regulatory frameworks, moving faster than Congress ever did.
The SEC and CFTC issued crypto-friendly relief on September 17, marking the first time both agencies moved toward regulatory exemptions on the same day.
Perpetual futures never expire, so an eight-hour funding fee and a mark price keep the contract near spot. Here is how the market's biggest bet works.
The revised CLARITY Act splits DeFi into two legal classes and aims CFTC registration at protocols that only look decentralized, days before a Senate vote.
Coinbase filed to bring single-stock perps to US traders and shares rose 10 percent, but the filing names no date, no stocks, and faces a CME lawsuit.
The CFTC closed its FTX cases against Caroline Ellison and Gary Wang with a five-year trading ban and no fine. An $11.02 billion forfeiture still stands.
Kalshi's August 18 CFTC filing prices a copper perpetual off a Pyth oracle instead of COMEX, and CME is suing over the approval path behind it.
The SEC scrapped its own crypto vote and the Senate punted the CLARITY Act to a September cloture clock. Polymarket now prices 2026 passage near 21%.
FlightAware is suing Kalshi over flight-cancellation markets it says use its data without permission. The case tests who controls the settlement source behind every prediction market.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has become one of the most consequential regulators in crypto, with jurisdiction over derivatives, event contracts, and a growing share of the digital-asset market that Congress may formally hand it. This tag tracks enforcement actions, the fight over prediction-market and event-contract oversight with Kalshi and Polymarket, the federal-state preemption battles against gambling regulators, the push to onshore decentralized markets like Hyperliquid, and the market-structure bills that would expand CFTC authority over spot crypto. Coinliva covers the cases, the commissioner decisions, and the turf war between the CFTC and the SEC that will shape which agency ultimately governs the industry.