Kalshi Is Launching the Product Coinbase Cannot Sell in the US
The $11 billion prediction market operator walks into crypto perpetuals through a CFTC door that Coinbase and Robinhood still cannot open. Polymarket beat it to market by six days.
Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated event contracts exchange and represents the licensed, US-domiciled alternative to crypto-native prediction platforms like Polymarket. The coverage here tracks what matters: contract listings across elections, economic indicators, weather events, sports outcomes, and the categories Kalshi has fought to expand through court rulings against the CFTC, regulatory battles over which event contracts qualify under CFTC jurisdiction and which run into state gambling laws, partnership deals like the link-up with NYSE casino operators for US prediction markets and the broader push into mainstream financial venues, volume growth as the platform expands its product set and attracts both retail and institutional traders, the court precedent Kalshi has set in cases that shape what other event contract platforms can list, and the state-level lawsuits from places like New York that argue the contracts amount to unlicensed gambling. Kalshi’s regulatory posture is the defining feature. Where Polymarket operates outside US borders for US users, Kalshi fought through the CFTC approval process and now uses that license as a competitive moat. Coinliva covers the listings, the legal cases, the partnership announcements, and the broader question of whether regulated event contracts ultimately replace crypto-native prediction markets in the US or coexist with them.
The $11 billion prediction market operator walks into crypto perpetuals through a CFTC door that Coinbase and Robinhood still cannot open. Polymarket beat it to market by six days.
A new Bitget Wallet and Polymarket report shows monthly prediction market volume hit $25.7 billion in March, up from $1.9 billion a year earlier. Retail users drove over 80% of the activity, and the average user is now active four times more often than they were three months ago.
Attorney General Letitia James wants triple damages, customer restitution, and a ban on under-21 wagering. Coinbase stock fell 6% as the lawsuit landed.
The sector dropped 66% from March's record. But the real story is who grabbed the crown while everyone was looking the other way.
Three funding rounds in seven months. Annualized volume tripled to $178 billion. Five states are suing it. Coatue, Sequoia, and Morgan Stanley all wrote checks anyway.
Spain's Consumer Rights Ministry ordered ISPs to block both platforms after finding they operate without gambling licenses. The ban follows a Polymarket contract on PM Sanchez leaving office and a Kalshi market pricing his exit at 29%. The block list now includes India, Indonesia, Brazil, Ukraine, France, Belgium, Australia, Portugal, Argentina, the Netherlands, and Spain.
Chairman Mike Selig told a FINRA audience that the agency has signed a data-sharing deal with MLB and is now talking to every pro league about insider trading on prediction markets. The NFL, historically resistant, is finally at the table.
The Finance Ministry blocked access to all major prediction market platforms while the central bank moved to outlaw the underlying derivative contracts.
Friday gave the prediction market fight its sharpest day yet. Letitia James signed a bipartisan amicus brief in the morning. Hours later, the CFTC named her in a federal lawsuit. New York is now the fourth state the agency has sued in three weeks.