George Santos opened a KalshiEX account on 11 February 2026. Over thirteen days he put roughly $15,300 into contracts on one question, whether he would turn up at the State of the Union, and walked away with $17,839. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission signed the settlement order on 31 July.
Coverage stopped at the $35,000 penalty and the three-year ban. The split inside the order matters more. George Santos cleared $3,448.43 on the side that said he would attend, and $14,390.57 on the side that said he would not.
A post about his suit took yes from 15 cents to 70
He started buying on 12 February and ended up with 30,874 yes contracts costing $6,695.94. At 2:31 a.m. on 22 February he asked followers whether to wear a muted, serious suit to the speech or a bedazzled one. Yes moved from $0.15 to $0.70 within hours. He sold the lot.
Then the travel fell apart. His flight was cancelled at 4:07 that afternoon and he bought train tickets before midnight. Next morning he wrote that the trip had become a nightmare, with members unable to fly into Washington. Yes dropped from $0.63 to $0.28.
The train was cancelled at 7 p.m. He posted "I am" at 8
At 5:12 p.m. on 23 February he said he would be there in the gallery. A video followed six minutes later. Yes climbed back from $0.40 to $0.70 inside the hour. At 5:59 p.m., forty minutes after that video, George Santos started buying the other side, finishing with 23,855 no contracts that cost $8,650.66.
His train was cancelled at 7 p.m. An hour later, asked whether he was still going, he answered "I am" and said nothing about the train. On 24 February he posted that watching the speech from an airport television was not the plan. Yes fell from $0.73 to $0.02. He closed the no position in the early hours of the 25th.
| Leg | Contracts | Cost | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, sold 22 February | 30,874 | $6,695.94 | $3,448.43 |
| No, sold 25 February | 23,855 | $8,650.66 | $14,390.57 |
| Combined | 54,729 | $15,346.60 | $17,839.00 |
Every other event contract release this year was paperwork
The regulator has been busy with event contracts all year. None of that work touched a trader. Its 2026 press releases cover self-certification guidance, two proposed rules, an approval of Kalshi's bitcoin perpetual, and an emergency stay of a KalshiEX rule change. The Santos order is the first aimed at somebody trading them.
Kalshi says its systems caught the pattern immediately, and chief executive Tarek Mansour said the attempt was flagged within seconds. Five months went by between that flag and the order. The exchange will run its own enforcement action and try to reimburse whoever sat on the other side of those 23,855 contracts. It has not said how many there are.
Coinliva has followed this regulator's slow walk into prediction markets before, from the congressional letters on insider trading to the direct clash with state gambling regulators over who polices these venues. Those fights run to billions, including New York's $36 billion claim against Kalshi. The first federal case against a trader was worth $15,346.60.