Coinbase posted its third straight quarterly loss on Thursday, $359.5 million of it, and the crypto press spent Friday on that one number. The figure worth more attention sat in the outlook table near the bottom of the filing. Coinbase trading revenue for the third quarter stood at roughly $130 million through July 26.
Twenty six days in. About five million dollars a day.
Set that against the quarter just closed. Transaction revenue came to $599.2 million across the 91 days of April, May and June, which works out to $6.58 million a day. July is running around 24 percent behind that pace.
The company said not to annualize it, and that caution is fair
Trading revenue moves with volatility, so a quiet July can turn into a loud September. Coinbase flagged exactly that. The caveat cuts both ways, though. Twenty six days already cover more than a quarter of the reporting period, and nothing management guided points to a rebound it was willing to name. Hold the five million dollar daily rate across all 92 days of the third quarter and Coinbase trading revenue lands near $460 million.
That would be the softest trading quarter Coinbase has reported this year. It follows a period when the company lost $394 million in the first quarter and kept buying Bitcoin.
Subscriptions finished $44 million behind. Guidance puts them ahead
Subscription and services revenue reached $555.1 million in the second quarter, 48 percent of net revenue. Transaction revenue beat it by $44.1 million. For the third quarter Coinbase guided that subscription line to between $500 million and $580 million. Line the bottom of that range up against the $460 million July implies and the subscription line becomes the bigger one.
| Line | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Transaction revenue | $599.2M over 91 days | about $130M over 26 days |
| Trading revenue per day | $6.58M | $5.00M |
| Subscription and services | $555.1M | $500M to $580M guided |
| Stablecoin revenue within that line | $292M | not guided separately |
Costs are the other half of that arithmetic. Coinbase guided full year adjusted expenses to a range of $4.2 billion to $4.45 billion, which the company called roughly flat year over year excluding USDC rewards growth. Flat costs against a shrinking trading line is the arithmetic that has produced three losses in a row.
Most of that subscription line is interest income. Stablecoin revenue alone was $292 million, earned on an average $20 billion of USDC sitting in Coinbase products, up 44 percent from a year ago. That revenue depends on where the Fed holds rates, not on whether anyone trades. It arrives whether volumes recover or keep sliding, which is why the June figures mattered when USDC moved sixteen times its own supply in a single month.
A record share of a market that got smaller
Coinbase took 10.3 percent of global spot volume in the second quarter, up from 9.1 percent in the first, a third consecutive record. Industry spot volume fell roughly 25 percent over the same stretch. A bigger slice of a smaller pie still counts, and adjusted EBITDA stayed positive at $207.8 million for a fourteenth straight quarter. Total revenue still dropped 19 percent from a year ago, to $1.22 billion.
The company says 88 percent of net revenue now comes from something other than Bitcoin spot trading. On the earnings call, executives put Bitcoin at 12 percent of revenue. Prediction market contracts and revenue more than doubled quarter over quarter and crossed $100 million annualized by Coinbase's own count, a business that looked speculative back when prediction markets cleared $8.6 billion in April. Small lines. Growing ones.
The next check point is the third quarter report in October. Two figures to line up then: where Coinbase trading revenue finished against the $460 million July implied, and whether the subscription line held its guided range.
