Polymarket Puts the CLARITY Act at 14% Before a September 15 Vote
Polymarket gives the CLARITY Act a 14.5% chance of becoming law in 2026 even as the Senate schedules a September 15 cloture vote and whales bet against it.
Polymarket gives the CLARITY Act a 14.5% chance of becoming law in 2026 even as the Senate schedules a September 15 cloture vote and whales bet against it.
Polymarket prices the CLARITY Act at 13% to become law in 2026 while Kalshi gives the September vote a 91% chance. Its odds fell from 82% in February.
Bitcoin clung to $62,500 in extreme fear, but the day's real moves were elsewhere: the CLARITY Act hit political risk, Wall Street pushed into prediction markets, and Binance faced a June 30 EU deadline.
A new Bitget Wallet and Polymarket report shows monthly prediction market volume hit $25.7 billion in March, up from $1.9 billion a year earlier. Retail users drove over 80% of the activity, and the average user is now active four times more often than they were three months ago.
A White House adviser said at Bitcoin 2026 Las Vegas that a major Strategic Bitcoin Reserve update is coming in weeks. The Lummis-Begich bill that would lock the reserve into law just got renamed and reintroduced. Polymarket still gives it a 23% chance before 2027.
Polymarket hired Chainalysis on April 30 to build an onchain anomaly detection system, days after a U.S. Green Beret pleaded not guilty to a $400,000 insider bet. A new ACDC report shows military markets win at four times the normal longshot rate.
HIP-4 went live on mainnet with zero fees to open and a 1 million HYPE staking requirement for builders. Polymarket charges up to 2% on winners. That gap is the entire pitch.
The venture capital giant filed an 18-page letter telling federal regulators to hold the line. On the other side: a coalition of attorneys general from nearly every state in the country.
Patrick Witt told Consensus Miami the executive branch can take a 'big step forward' without waiting for Congress. But the last time Treasury was asked about buying BTC, the answer was no.
The New York Times published an investigation on Sunday that lands like a grenade in the middle of the prediction market debate. The core finding: career…
India's Ministry of Electronics ordered ISPs to block Polymarket. The site is already unreachable for Indian users. Local media reports say Kalshi is next. The government classifies all prediction markets as illegal online gambling.
SDNY US Attorney Jay Clayton has pushed back against Roman Storm's attempt to use a 2026 Supreme Court copyright ruling as a defense against the two charges a jury deadlocked on last year. The case is a live contradiction: the same DOJ that issued a memo ending 'regulation by prosecution' on crypto platforms is now pursuing a retrial that could send a developer to prison for 40 years for writing open-source code.
The deal gives Payward all three CFTC licenses needed to run a full-stack U.S. crypto derivatives platform. It follows Deutsche Börse's $200 million stake in Kraken earlier this week.
Trump Media transferred 2,650 BTC to Crypto.com on May 22, the second major outflow this year. The company originally bought 11,542 BTC for $1.37 billion. It is now sitting on a $455 million unrealized loss, and last week it withdrew its Bitcoin ETF application.
Seven House Democrats sent CFTC Chair Michael Selig a letter demanding answers on suspicious trades tied to U.S. military actions in Iran and Venezuela. The same trades that made anonymous users hundreds of thousands of dollars in minutes.
Friday gave the prediction market fight its sharpest day yet. Letitia James signed a bipartisan amicus brief in the morning. Hours later, the CFTC named her in a federal lawsuit. New York is now the fourth state the agency has sued in three weeks.
Congress sets the legislative direction for US crypto, and the market increasingly moves on what lawmakers propose, pass, or block. This tag tracks the market-structure and stablecoin bills, the hearings and testimony from regulators and executives, the bipartisan and partisan splits that decide whether legislation advances, and the investigations into projects and personalities across the industry. Coinliva covers the bills that matter, the political shifts that turn proposals into law, and the market reaction when major crypto legislation reaches a vote.