Three Small Bets Predicted an Unlikely Press Secretary Pick Hours Before the News Broke
Kalshi is investigating at least three bets totaling about $173 that correctly predicted Katie Zacharia as President Trump's new White House press secretary, with the wagers placed hours before the Friday afternoon announcement. Traders had given her roughly a 1% chance in the days leading up to the pick.
The first bet of $19 came in around 10:42 p.m. ET Thursday, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of public Kalshi data. Two more bets, totaling about $154, followed around 1:41 p.m. Friday. The New York Times and other outlets reported Zacharia's selection at 2 p.m. ET that day. The three bets carry an expected combined payout of roughly $9,600.
Zacharia is a senior communications adviser at Trump Media & Technology Group and previously served as a DHS spokesperson. Trump confirmed the appointment on Truth Social Friday afternoon, naming her to succeed Karoline Leavitt.
The timing follows similar investigations at Polymarket, Kalshi's main competitor in the prediction markets space. Both platforms have faced mounting scrutiny over potential insider activity as their political markets have grown in popularity this election cycle.
Platform Has Already Settled Two Insider Cases This Summer
The investigation follows two major enforcement actions in August. Former White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez agreed to repay $107,539 and pay a $65,000 civil penalty after the CFTC alleged he traded on Kalshi mention markets using information from Trump's prepared speeches. He had advance access to the remarks about an hour before delivery and opened his Kalshi account in December 2025.
On August 31, Kalshi permanently banned former Rep. George Santos and fined him $71,356. Santos had misled the public about whether he would attend Trump's State of the Union address to profit from Kalshi bets. He made more than $17,000 on the trades and settled with the CFTC for an additional $17,500.
Platform Tightened Controls After House Probe
In June, Kalshi began requiring employer disclosure for high-risk markets. The platform reported more than 20 law enforcement referrals and over 150 investigations in the first quarter of the year. House Oversight Chair James Comer opened a probe into insider trading on Kalshi and Polymarket in May.
Kalshi confirmed it is investigating the Zacharia trades but declined further comment. The company hired a former FBI agent in early October to strengthen its anti-money laundering and compliance operations.